Between a soft landing and a recession

Volatility ahead for Bitcoin

It looks like the markets are finally going to get the rate cuts they wanted. That should be a good thing right? Well… not exactly.

Instead of the soft landing most investors are expecting we are getting something much more ugly. Volatility ahead.

---

The Ecoinometrics newsletter gives you insights from crypto and macro data to help you make better investment decisions. 

We spend hours every day gathering data, creating metrics and bringing them to life with data visualizations that allow you to quickly get to the heart of things.

We then distill all that knowledge in each issue of the newsletter with less words and more charts so that you get insights, direct to the point, in five minutes or less.

Join more than 23,000 investors here:

Done? Thanks! That’s great! Now let’s dive in.

---

Between a soft landing and a recession

The takeaway

The Federal Reserve signals potential rate cuts, with markets expecting action by September.

The PCE inflation trends provide mixed signals but could justify easing.

But the real issue is the weakening of the job market. The unemployment rate is rising and that echoes pre-recession patterns.

The tl;dr is that there is a clear risk of recession and a potential liquidity crisis looms.

Investors should prepare for increased market volatility across assets, including Bitcoin.

The Fed faces a delicate balance between controlling inflation and preventing recession, which will likely drive market dynamics in the near term.

The Federal Reserve will cut rates