Bitcoin and NASDAQ: Approaching the Bearish Threshold

Time for defensive positioning as correlation risks intensify

The market is spinning. One day we have tariffs, the next they're delayed. One day inflation seems to be cooling, the next it's "still too damn high." One day the US economy looks strong, the next day cracks appear.

Market uncertainty hasn't been this high in a long time.

This uncertainty hurts risk assets, and by extension, it hurts Bitcoin.

We're now dangerously close to facing a major headwind for BTC.

Let's talk about that.

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Bitcoin and NASDAQ: Approaching the Bearish Threshold

The Takeaway

Bitcoin and the NASDAQ 100 remain stuck in significant drawdowns with recovery prospects dimming.

Historical patterns suggest we're at a critical threshold as the NASDAQ approaches 20 days below its 200-day moving average, typically a precursor to bearish conditions. Our model shows a 40% probability of Bitcoin entering a bearish pullback, with weak ETF inflows insufficient to counter broader market weakness.

Investors should adopt defensive positioning and reduce leverage immediately.

Deep Drawdowns: Recovery Not Guaranteed