Bitcoin at Crossroads: ETF Outflows Signal Potential Price Pressure

Bitcoin ETFs Report, March 2025

The size of the ETF outflows triggered by last week's risk-off event is large, the largest outflow sequence on record since the ETFs launched last year.

That has been putting our Bitcoin price model based on ETF flows to the test.

As it turns out, the model is solid.

The current trend is telling us something about how sustainable Bitcoin's current price level is.

Let's dig into this.

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Bitcoin at Crossroads: ETF Outflows Signal Potential Price Pressure

The Takeaway

February ended with Bitcoin's first significant ETF outflows (39k BTC) since launch, resulting in a 16% price drop.

Our ETF flow model remains valid, with each 10,000 BTC of monthly flow still correlating to a 4% price change. These outflows represent only 7% of total ETF holdings, resetting to January levels.

Bitcoin's current price (~$87,000) sits above model predictions ($77,000), suggesting likely consolidation in the $70-77K range without renewed inflows.

ETF Flow Model Validated By February Outflows