Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Stabilizing and Our Model Shows Recovery as the Baseline
Bitcoin ETFs Report, December 2025
After the second-largest sequence of outflows on record, the Bitcoin ETFs finally showed signs of stabilizing last week.
That shift matters. A stabilization in flows is the first condition for Bitcoin to recover from a drawdown this deep. Without it, it is unlikely for a sustainable price recovery trend to take hold.
In today’s edition, we update our ETF flows model to see whether this stabilization is the start of a real turning point and what our simulations suggest are the most likely scenarios for December.
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Bitcoin ETF Flows Are Stabilizing and Our Model Shows Recovery as the Baseline
The Takeaway
Bitcoin ETF outflows have finally stabilized after a sharp decline, and this shift matters because, historically, stabilization is quickly followed by a recovery of flows. And that’s what is needed to carry a rally.
Our updated flows-to-returns model remains statistically strong, though its slope is drifting as the ETF market matures.
