Bitcoin ETF Flows: Right Model, Wrong Time

Bitcoin ETFs Report, February 2025

In the end, January was a good month for Bitcoin. The reversal of the ETF flow dynamics was enough to make BTC once more one of the top-performing assets of the month.

But the first implementations of Trump policies and uncertainty about the Fed's response to the new administration are creating major market uncertainties.

Yet through all this, we can stay focused on our north star in this market: how the Bitcoin ETFs are performing.

Let's have a look.

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Bitcoin ETF Flows: Right Model, Wrong Time

The Takeaway

January saw 51,000 BTC in ETF inflows and an 8.5% price return, validating our model that links flows to performance.

Bitcoin currently trades at $98,000, about $10,000 below what ETF flows suggest, hinting at potential upside.

However, new all-time highs in February would require record inflows of 100,000 BTC. That’s an unlikely scenario given current policy uncertainties.

Staying Close to the Model