Bitcoin ETFs are just a tool, the real trend is in demographics

ETF or no ETF, money is naturally flowing into crypto

When it comes to Bitcoin investors are focused on two things: the timing of the ETFs and the upcoming halving. 

The anticipation of the halving is pushing the narrative around Bitcoin as a scarce asset. And every twist and turns that's leading to the approval of a spot ETF is met by traders buying or selling depending on how the wind is blowing.

Now that's all well and good. But regardless of what happens in the short term, don't get your eyes off the big picture: the great wealth transfer is taking place.

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Bitcoin ETFs are just a tool, the real trend is in demographics

The takeaway

The halving narrative gaining traction or not. The spot ETFs getting approved or not. A recession messing up with the markets in 2024 (or not). Those are all big factors that will drive Bitcoin (and crypto as a consequence) in the upcoming year.

But as long term macro investors we need to think bigger, look at longer time frames. 

And in the grand scheme of things there is nothing bigger than demographic trends. Those are the kind of trends that take place with high certainty over decades.

If your investment thesis is riding on one of those demographic trends, you can make a high conviction bet and sit on it for a long time to see it play out.

That's exactly what's going on with digital assets and the great wealth transfer. The tl;dr:

• $100 trillion moving from the older generations who don't care much about digital assets to the younger generations who see them favourably.

• 30x as a reasonable growth factor coming from this transfer with a reasonable range going from 6x to 300x.

Regardless of what happens in the short term, keep this big trend in mind when making investment decisions.

Unlocking hundred trillion dollars of wealth