Bitcoin Hits $119K And ETF Flows Say There’s More Room to Run
Also Bitcoin ETFs Are Gaining on Gold in 2025’s Flow Race & Rising Debt, Rising Rates, Shrinking Dollar
Welcome to Ecoinometrics' Friday edition.
Each week, we analyze the three most critical market signals impacting Bitcoin and macro assets, delivering institutional-grade insights through data-driven charts and analysis.
Today we'll cover:
Bitcoin Hits $119K And ETF Flows Say There’s More Room to Run
Bitcoin ETFs Are Gaining on Gold in 2025’s Flow Race
Rising Debt, Rising Rates, Shrinking Dollar
The common thread? Investors are positioning for a regime where hard assets matter. Bitcoin and gold are both seeing strong inflows as demand builds for stores of value outside fiat. Meanwhile, rising U.S. debt and interest costs are reinforcing that trend. This is not just fuelling price moves, but shifting capital allocation at a structural level.
In case you missed it, here are the other topics we covered this week:
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Bitcoin Hits $119K And ETF Flows Say There’s More Room to Run
Bitcoin just made a new all-time high. This breakout has been building for weeks.
Macro conditions were supportive. ETF flows kept trending positive. And now we’re here: $119K, exactly in line with the target price our ETF flows model projected earlier this week.
So the question isn’t whether we’re breaking out. The question is: how far can we go in the short term?
According to our ETF flows model, Bitcoin’s price should be around $124K today based on cumulative ETF inflows. We aren’t far from that already. But the 1-sigma range of the model suggests we could reasonably see $130K before hitting resistance.
That’s not just hopium. It’s based on the same flows that have driven the entire price channel higher over the past few months. And the flows are still coming in.
This gives us a fundamentally grounded upside target. This is not a pure guess based on the narrative, this is an input-driven model pointing to more room to run.
Bitcoin ETFs Are Gaining on Gold in 2025’s Flow Race
Bitcoin had a slower start to the year compared to gold.
That’s not surprising. Even though it’s often called digital gold, Bitcoin behaves more like a risk-on asset when macro forces are in the driver’s seat. So while gold benefitted from safe-haven flows and a multi-year bid for hard assets, Bitcoin was lagging behind.
But when Bitcoin catches up, it moves fast.
Over the past few months, Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $13.5 billion in net inflows, about 70% of gold’s $19.2 billion year-to-date. If risk-on sentiment persists through the second half of the year, Bitcoin could easily overtake gold in total ETF flows.
That matters. ETF demand has become the primary driver of Bitcoin’s price action in 2025. A strong inflow trend is a strong tailwind for price.
It also signals a shift in how capital allocators view Bitcoin. It’s no longer just a speculative asset, it’s now competing directly with gold in portfolios, and doing so with stronger momentum.
Rising Debt, Rising Rates, Shrinking Dollar
The latest fiscal package just passed, adding an estimated $3.4 trillion to the U.S. deficit over the next decade. For context, the net federal deficit in 2024 was already $1.8 trillion.
The U.S. isn’t on a sustainable fiscal path. It keeps borrowing more to fund persistent deficits, and the result is a growing debt pile.
This isn’t new. Over the past 20 years, federal debt has increased by about $1.4 trillion per year on average. What’s more striking is how the growth rate keeps accelerating after every major crisis, first after 2008, then again post-COVID.
That’s a known dynamic: deficits swell during hard times, but spending rarely comes back down during good times. The result is structurally higher debt levels, regardless of the cycle.
What’s changed lately is the cost of that debt.
The average interest rate on U.S. debt is now at its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. So not only is the government borrowing more, it’s paying more to service the debt.
That’s a dangerous feedback loop. Rising interest payments widen the deficit, which leads to more borrowing, which pushes rates even higher.
There are only a few ways out of that trap and most of them involve some form of currency debasement. Let inflation run a bit hotter. Get the Fed to finance more debt. And over time, the purchasing power of the dollar erodes.
That’s why discerning investors are leaning into hard assets: gold, and increasingly, Bitcoin.
That's it for today. Thanks for reading.
Cheers,
Nick
P.S. Every week, our team conducts extensive research analyzing market data, tracking emerging trends, and creating professional-grade charts and analysis.
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