Bitcoin is a land of opportunity, with or without volatility

Should you lament the disappearance of volatility?

Time passes. Bitcoin matures. Its volatility isn't what it used to be. 

But is that really a problem? Do you really need a long tail of extremely volatile events to find opportunities in trading Bitcoin? 

The answer is, you don't. 

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Bitcoin is a land of opportunity, with or without volatility

The takeaway

In any given quarter you would be able to make a typical 61% profit by being long Bitcoin or a 32% profit by short Bitcoin.

What that means is if you want to make tactical bets on Bitcoin (but the same applies to Ethereum and other tightly correlated assets) you can extract a fair amount of returns out of relatively short timeframes.

And the good news is that there is no relationship between Bitcoin's volatility and those tactical returns. That is, generally speaking, those opportunities do not disappear when volatility decreases.

That's an important property given that as Bitcoin matures you won't be able to rely forever on exponential growth.  

Volatility is going away

I have shown on several occasion how Bitcoin is losing its right tail of extreme volatility events over time. The question I always get afterwards is: does that mean there are less opportunities to profit from Bitcoin?