Bitcoin momentum is back: here is why you should not bet against the trend

Bitcoin performance review, November 2023

Look, no one else is more worried about the risk of a serious recession than me. But if you are disciplined with your risk management, that doesn't prevent you from riding the trend. 

Because yes, Bitcoin is back on trend. And it is a bad bet to just ignore it.

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Bitcoin momentum is back: here is why you should not bet against the trend

The takeaway

The reaction to the "imminent" approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US is pushing Bitcoin back above the long term trend. 

Yet macro is telling us to be cautious. If we are going to get a recession, the next few quarters are the most likely period. 

What to do with these contradictory signals?

My advice is to play it systematic. 

Bitcoin is strongly driven by momentum. Historically there is X% chance that Bitcoin will deliver positive returns looking forward at 28 days based solely on momentum.

So if you are playing the odds, you want to follow this trend. Just make sure to not go all in (no leverage, no foray into illiquid markets) and you have good chances of securing some upside in the short term. 

Momentum