Bitcoin On-Chain: A Mid-Cycle Pause, Not A Top

Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Report, February 2025

Bitcoin's price action has been quiet since the end of January.

We often talk about the calm before the storm, a period of consolidation before the next move. But right now, the direction of the next big move isn't clear.

For on-chain activity specifically, the situation mirrors this: uncertain but with a bullish bias.

Let's examine the data.

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Bitcoin On-Chain: A Mid-Cycle Pause, Not A Top

The Takeaway

Bitcoin's on-chain activity has fallen sharply in the short time frames while maintaining bullish structure over longer time frames.

ETF flows now dominate market dynamics, replacing traditional whale behavior when it comes to moving coins around. Current patterns suggest a mid-cycle pause rather than a top, with activity levels below historical peaks indicating room for growth.

The market holds just below $100,000, awaiting either renewed ETF buying to drive the next leg up or sustained weakness to challenge the bull trend.

Short Term Weakness, Long Term Strength