Bitcoin on-chain: before and after the ETFs

Bitcoin on-chain accumulation report, February 2024

Can you rely on historical on-chain patterns in a world where spot Bitcoin ETFs control a large percentage of the Bitcoin supply?

One month after the launch of the ETFs I'm leaning towards no. We need to change our approach by taking into account the scale of the ETFs.

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Bitcoin on-chain: before and after the ETFs

The takeaway

The spot Bitcoin ETFs are changing the dynamic of the on-chain accumulation trends.

Right now coins are flowing from small addresses to whales. This is increasing the concentration of BTC into a small number of larger wallets.

But the real risk is in the way those coins are controlled. 

There is a mismatch between the always online nature of the Bitcoin market and trading calendar of the ETFs. In the event of a liquidity crisis that could amplify the downside.

That's something to be aware of, the ETFs aren't strictly positive for the Bitcoin market dynamics.

Spot ETFs are driving Bitcoin movements on-chain