Bitcoin Rallies, But Macro Conditions Remain a Headwind

Short-term optimism is back, but sustainable momentum still faces challenges

Last week, Bitcoin staged a strong recovery, pushing back above $95K.

The rally was driven by a combination of heavy inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs and a wave of optimism following signs of a softer stance on trade issues from the U.S. administration.

Momentum like this is important, but we have to distinguish between short-term narratives and medium-term structural forces.

While the ETF inflows and improving sentiment provide a boost, the broader liquidity conditions, which underpin sustained trends, have not yet turned favourable.

In today’s edition, we examine:

• The price outlook if inflows continue

• The statistical odds that inflows persist

• The macro liquidity backdrop that still demands caution.

Let’s dig into this.

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Bitcoin Rallies, But Macro Conditions Remain a Headwind

The Takeaway

Bitcoin’s rally above $95K reflects strong ETF inflows and a wave of optimism around U.S. trade policy. While short-term momentum could continue, the macro backdrop remains unfavourable.