Bitcoin: Weak Momentum vs Strong Fundamentals

Models point to undervaluation despite market uncertainty

The financial markets have been acting bi-polar recently. One week they see the Trump administration and decide everything is fantastic for the market. The next week they look at the economy and decide it's time to sell everything.

In all this, Bitcoin hasn't seen big upside swings. Let's look at what's happening and what it means for Bitcoin's price action in the short term.

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Bitcoin: Weak Momentum vs Strong Fundamentals

The Takeaway

Bitcoin's market shows conflicting signals. ETF flows have become choppy with no clear direction, and Bitcoin has recently started lagging behind the NASDAQ 100 despite their strong correlation since September.

However, our three valuation models all suggest Bitcoin is trading below fair value, with conservative estimates indicating a price above $100,000. This creates a disconnect between weak short-term momentum and positive fundamental indicators.

Weak ETF Dynamic