Bitcoin's Next Move: Why the Fed's Exit from QT Isn't Enough

Nothing Short of QE Matters

There was no groundbreaking announcement from the FOMC meeting last week. Bitcoin's price action confirms this. After an initial bump, the market went flat.

The FOMC meeting avoided bad news for risk assets. However, it failed to clear up existing uncertainty.

Let's talk about that.

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Bitcoin Is Unlikely To Be Moved By The Fed Strategy

The Takeaway

The Fed maintained its hawkish stance at the March meeting, having minimal impact on Bitcoin's price.

Our analysis shows Bitcoin only significantly outperforms when the Fed's balance sheet expands rapidly (top 25% historically), delivering 5x normal returns.

The transition from QT to neutral policy likely establishes a price floor rather than driving growth. In this uncertain environment, investors should watch ETF flows as the key indicator while Bitcoin remains in consolidation mode.

The Fed Maintains A Moderately Hawkish Tone