Bitcoin's price after the halving: updating the model

Bitcoin's trajectory after the fourth halving

Bitcoin investors expect the price will go up after the halving like they expect the sun will rise again tomorrow.

This kind of belief leads to a self-fulfilling prophecy of bull markets always following the Bitcoin halving events.

This time around with the ETFs helping the demand side of the equation nobody thinks it will be different. 

So the question isn't really if Bitcoin will go up after the halving. The question is by how much? 

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Bitcoin's price after the halving: updating the model

The takeaway

Under the assumption that Bitcoin's growth trajectory after the halving will rhyme with history we can make some guesses about where Bitcoin is going.

The range is wide:

• $2m per BTC if the growth is explosive as it was back in the days.

• $300k if the people in the camp of diminishing returns are correct.

With the existence of the ETFs and the current market dynamics at play I believe Bitcoin challenging gold within a few years is a reasonable upper bound for growth this cycle.

In terms of Bitcoin's price that would place this upper bound around $560k per BTC. That's in line with an average growth post-halving based on the last three cycles.

But let's look at it in full details. 

What happened after the third halving?