Did the bull market peak or has it not started yet?

Bitcoin on-chain accumulation report, May 2024

I’m looking at the on-chain data for Bitcoin this month and I have conflicted feelings. 

One the one hand historical comparisons are warning us that the bull market might be over. But on the other hand the specifics of this bull market could also mean that we have not seen the real parabolic move yet. 

So here it is. Let me make a case for this double reading the on-chain activity and what it means for where we are in this cycle.

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Did the bull market peak or has it not started yet?

The takeaway

In 2020/2021 Bitcoin’s price peaked at the same time as its on-chain activity. Everything that came after was not driven by sustainable demand. 

In the current setup of the on-chain activity you can see shadows of 2021. That means we should be cautious. Especially there are two negative activity dynamics that you need to watch out for (details below).

But we also need to recognize the specificities of the market in 2024. The real demand is so far driven only by the ETFs. Which means the price appreciation from January to April is far from the maximum potential of this bull market. 

Under favourable macro conditions the parabolic rise could happen anytime.

Bitcoin activity in the bull market of 2020/2021