Early signs of a recession: which metrics are rolling over?

Watch out for Q4 2023 ~ Q1 2024

September is over. That means we have entered Q4 2023. Based on the historical patterns of the inversion of the yield curve this is the danger zone when it comes to the start of a recession.

And like clockwork a number of recession metrics are rolling over.

Let’s look at a few of these metrics and what they tell us about where we are in this cycle.

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Early signs of a recession: which metrics are rolling over?

The takeaway

Based on one of the most reliable metrics we have to anticipate downturns, there is a 60% chance of a recession within the next 12 months.

By historical standard this is a high probability.

And already some metrics are flashing warning signs:

• The amount of job openings is falling below the long term trend.

• The jobs in the trucking industry are declining. That’s always a warning that business is slowing down.

• The housing market is seeing its largest correction since the Great Recession.

All that points towards a slowdown of the US economy which is can only lead to a recession. 

So be prepared for that.

The spread on the yield curve is reaching the danger zone