Ecoinometrics - Unemployment is next

There is no recession without people losing their job.

When you read the commentaries on the state of the economy it is clear that not everyone believes we are heading towards a global recession. Whether it is pure denial or careful analysis that make them reach this conclusion I don’t know. 

When I look at the economic data, I do not see anything that makes me hopeful we can avoid a global recession. 

But I guess we’ll need to see unemployment rise to get everyone on the same page. If you look close enough the first signs are already there.

---

The Ecoinometrics newsletter helps you navigate the landscape of digital assets and macroeconomics with investment strategies backed by data.

Subscribe now to get the latest research directly in your inbox.

Done? Thanks! That’s great! Now let’s dive in.

---

Unemployment is next

The funniest moment of last week’s press conference at the FOMC meeting is when Jerome Powell is told (incorrectly) that the stock market reacted positively to the new rate hike. You can see the annoyance on his face:

Andy West, PhD @andycwest

The pivotal moment in #Fed press conference: When (incorrectly) told the market had reacted positively, Jerome Powell seems frustrated and lists ONLY reasons why this is the wrong interpretation. Very telling for #stocks. $QQQ $SPY #macro #inflation https://t.co/FGjJw1slng

This should tell you everything you need to know about the ultimate goal of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve: PAIN!

They are not doing rate hikes for the enjoyment of investors. They are doing it to cause enough economic damage that this pestering inflation issue is finally taken care of. 

Remember the order of priorities:

1. Deal with inflation.

That’s it. There is no number 2.