ETF Flow Simulations Point to Short-Term Risk for Bitcoin

Bitcoin ETF Report, November 2025

From a macro perspective, there’s still no clear reason for Bitcoin’s price to be this weak.

Liquidity conditions remain loose, risk assets are holding up, and the Nasdaq 100 continues to trend higher overall despite the turbulences.

Yet Bitcoin is hovering just above $100K.

Now when price action diverges from macro conditions, the risk isn’t just a short-term correction, it’s that investors in the Bitcoin ETFs start to pull capital.

ETF flows have been one of the strongest drivers of this bull market, so any shift in those flows can quickly feed back into price.

The closer Bitcoin gets to the $100K mark, the more likely that feedback loop becomes.

In this edition of the Bitcoin ETF Report, we look at the data to quantify what could happen if ETF flows begin to weaken and how far prices might fall under different scenarios.

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ETF Flow Simulations Point to Short-Term Risk for Bitcoin

The Takeaway

Bitcoin’s price weakness around $100K isn’t driven by macro fundamentals but it could lead to a strong decline in ETF flows.

Momentum in ETF inflows stalled in mid-October and now the current price dip is shifting the short-term risk balance to the downside.