For Bitcoin Returns Flow Streaks Matter

Bitcoin ETFs Report, January 2025

Happy New Year 2025!

The results for Bitcoin in December were disappointing, but looking at our ETF flows model, they aren't totally surprising. To have a very high likelihood of growth in a given month, you need very substantial inflows. Much more than we had this month.

Today we update our model with the latest data, look at what's needed in terms of flow to start the year on a positive note, and answer the question: is it worth keeping track of ETF inflows and outflows streaks?

Let's discuss.

---

The Ecoinometrics newsletter gives you insights from crypto and macro data to help you make better investment decisions.

We spend hours every day gathering data, creating metrics and bringing them to life with data visualizations that allow you to quickly get to the heart of things.

We then distill all that knowledge in each issue of the newsletter with less words and more charts so that you get insights, direct to the point, in five minutes or less.

Join more than 27,000 investors here:

Done? Thanks! That’s great! Now let’s dive in.

---

For Bitcoin Returns Flow Streaks Matter

The Takeaway

December closed with mixed signals: high ETF inflows but disappointing returns.

Bitcoin ended the month at $93,500 with nearly 45k BTC in net inflows, landing within our model's expectations but on the lower end.

The relationship between flows and returns remains robust, with each 10k BTC of monthly inflows typically driving a 4.3% return. Looking ahead to January, we'd need about 100k BTC in monthly inflows for a high probability of breaking above $100k.

Beyond total flows, our analysis shows that streak patterns matter, consecutive days of inflows or outflows create a momentum effect that can provide early signals for price movements.

This suggests tactical opportunities even before monthly flow targets are reached.

A Bad Month but Not an Outlier