Higher Rates Are Testing Bitcoin’s Recovery
Bitcoin failed at the 200-day moving average as rising yields pressured rate-sensitive assets.
Bitcoin had a chance to give us a cleaner recovery signal last week.
The level to watch was the 200-day moving average. A clean break above it would have strengthened the case that the latest rebound was turning into something more durable.
Unfortunately this is not what happened.
Instead, Bitcoin’s price bounced on the 200-day moving average and is now weakening again.
On its own, that would already call for some caution. But the more important point is that Bitcoin is not weakening in isolation. Across markets, several rate-sensitive assets also struggled last week.
That means it could be more than just a failed test at the 200-day moving average crossover.
So on top of asking if Bitcoin is really losing momentum, we are asking whether the macro backdrop has started to turn against the recovery.
That is what we need to unpack today. Let’s look at the data.
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