Late-Cycle Signals Are Flashing Caution for Bitcoin
Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Report, December 2025
On Monday, we laid out two reasons why Bitcoin could stage a recovery into the new year: a potential rebound in ETF flows and a more supportive macro backdrop.
If that scenario materializes, it would provide meaningful relief. But when we step back and look at longer-horizon, lagging indicators, the picture is less reassuring. Those indicators suggest Bitcoin is losing underlying momentum in a way that has historically aligned with cycle tops.
This matters because lagging signals don’t tell us what will happen next, but they do tell us where the market currently stands. Right now, they describe a market that has slowed materially and now requires renewed support to avoid sliding into a bear phase.
In this report, we examine two of those indicators, explain what they are signalling today, and clarify how to interpret this warning without overreacting to it.
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Late-Cycle Signals Are Flashing Caution for Bitcoin
The Takeaway
Long-term indicators suggest Bitcoin has entered a late-cycle phase where underlying momentum has weakened.
