On-Chain Activity Backs the Bull, But ETFs Are Changing the Signal

Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Report, August 2025

The Bitcoin market has been choppy over the last few weeks. That’s less about Bitcoin itself and more about how investors are reading mixed macro signals on jobs, inflation, and interest rates.

With attention now on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell will say at Jackson Hole, it’s worth stepping back from the headlines. On-chain activity gives us a clearer view of Bitcoin’s underlying dynamics, one that isn’t distorted by day-to-day price swings.

That’s the bigger picture we’ll focus on in this month’s report.

---

Ecoinometrics delivers professional-grade crypto and macro analysis to help institutional investors and serious traders make data-driven decisions.

Our team conducts rigorous quantitative research, developing proprietary metrics and institutional-quality visualizations that cut through the noise to reveal key market dynamics.

Each newsletter provides clear, actionable insights backed by data, delivered in a concise format that respects your time - five minutes to absorb, but deep enough to inform your investment strategy.

Join over 33,000 professional investors and fund managers:

Ready? Let's dig into the data.

---

On-Chain Activity Backs the Bull, But ETFs Are Changing the Signal

The Takeaway

Bitcoin’s on-chain activity remains firmly consistent with a bull market.

Short-term measures are easing but still elevated, while long-term activity is at cycle highs with positive momentum. That profile points to less than a 10% chance of a major drawdown in the next three months.