The Bitcoin ETFs capture rate: how to think about the effect of the ETFs on Bitcoin's price

The Bitcoin ETFs report, February 2024

The Bitcoin ETFs are getting close to the one month anniversary. The novelty is fading away and we are starting to see some trend.

Some ETFs are doing better than others. And the least we can say is that there is some interest for these products.

But what does it mean for the only important metric, the Bitcoins capture rate?

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The Bitcoin ETFs capture rate: how to think about the effect of the ETFs on Bitcoin's price

The takeaway

If you have to look at a single metric tracking the Bitcoin ETFs it should be the Bitcoins capture rate.

It tells us given the current trend of ETFs flows, how many Bitcoins they can acquire if the price does not change.

We expect that when this number is high, the buying pressure on Bitcoin will drive the price higher.

Right now this rate doesn't look particularly high.

But it is still early to determine what qualifies as a high Bitcoins capture rate. 

Regardless, now is the right time to start building this tool. Because when the Grayscale situation settles down, the real action will begin.

So let's look at the current situation and discuss why we think this capture rate metric is important.

Grayscale: smaller outflows, still not settled down