When the Bitcoin ETFs make a pause, the on-chain activity grinds to a halt

Bitcoin on-chain accumulation report, April 2024

The number one question people are asking me these days is how will we know when the top of the bull market is in?

Figuring out tops and bottoms is essentially timing the market. If there was an easy answer to that I'd be a billionaire already.

That being said if we look at the scale of a cycle, not for local tops, there are some signs you can pick up. Some signs of slowing momentum. And those show up in the on-chain Bitcoin data.

What we are experiencing now is a prime example of that. And it ties directly with the ETFs.

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When the Bitcoin ETFs make a pause, the on-chain activity grinds to a halt

The takeaway

Paying close attention to the dynamic of the on-chain activity is giving good insights on what’s really driving the Bitcoin market.

If we had done that last cycle we could have guessed that the peak of the bull market was already behind us in April 2021.

So it is worth paying attention to it this time around. And in 2024, things are even easier than in 2021. Because we can easily see that most of the on-chain activity above the base level is driven by the Bitcoin ETFs. 

That means watching the demand coming from the ETFs is the same thing as tracking what’s happening on-chain. Once more the ETFs are the key to the Bitcoin market.

In the short term, the on-chain activity has peaked