Will the Stock Market Drag Down Bitcoin in 2025?

Long Cycles and Mean Reversion

In the short term what is going to decide whether or not Bitcoin can push higher in this bull market is the amount of institutional flows that will be allocated to BTC via the ETFs.

But if we zoom out a little bit, that amount of flows is likely to be tied to a wider cycle, the big cycle of risk assets.

So the question is: where are we in this cycle?

Let's look at the data.

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Will the Stock Market Drag Down Bitcoin in 2025?

The Takeaway

Bitcoin's 2025 outlook balances two forces: current ETF-driven momentum and the broader market cycle.

Historical data shows Bitcoin follows NASDAQ's lead, thriving in strong markets and struggling in weak ones.

With the NASDAQ potentially entering a mean reversion phase after two years of gains, Bitcoin might face headwinds.

Yet, even with slower growth, Bitcoin's path from $100k to a projected $150k remains feasible in 2025.

Bitcoin is Coupled to the Stock Market