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Good analisys, but i think you underestimate the possibility of a depression. Many things point exactly at the type of depression we had in the 1929, so 80+ % drawdown. That said i think the recovery would be faster if we get one.

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To clarify what I meant, we might very well get a very deep drawdown. I just don't think the recovery from it would last a whole generation. The Federal Reserve would start printing money like there is no tomorrow if the stock market dropped 80%. So we are pretty much in agreement.

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Yeah that would normally be true, but we have so much things going on right now, so in a way im not sure, that the recovery will be swift. I think we are at the brink of big changes economically, geopolitically, financially. Im afraid the changes will take time to accomodate to. The data doesnt lie and it doesn't look good all around the world + it just feels different than a casual recession. Don't want to spread fear..we just have to be prepared for the worst.

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I think that is always how it feels (this time it is different). You cannot really bet on that. What I do is, keep 20% cash just in case. Rest remains deployed.

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