9 Comments
Aug 3, 2021Liked by Ecoinometrics

Dope!

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I wonder if there has ever been a pattern of 10 green candles followed by 5 red candles before. This "10 green, 5 red" pattern seems relevant now: we just observed 10 green candles between 21-Aug to 30-Aug-2021 and we are now seeing 3 green candles in a row 31-July to 02-Aug. It would be interesting to quantify the frequency or probability of the event "10 green candles followed by 5 red candles", and the expected returns 30 days out. Another interesting query would be if it were possible to compute the probability of another red candle appearing, conditioned on 10 green candles in a row followed by 3 red candles in a row, i.e.,

p(R|[G,...G,R,R,R]).

Your post is very interesting and thought provoking. Thanks!

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Nick, when I switch timezone in TradingView, it doesn’t change how candlesticks look (the patterns). I tried with different intervals - still the same. So what did you exactly mean by that?

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So if we end this 3 day red candle slip, we can add the two values together and expect a 90% return in 3 weeks? Theoretically yes, but actually no.

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