This is a really important post because I know a lot of analysts in the community who would have just posted the first plot and claimed a relationship. Negative results get no traction in the world of social media, so instead we see so many people focusing on less useful relationships that look at first glance really promising (e.g, most metrics including STH Realized Price).
However, with rise of derivative trading (CME for past three +years and stable coins margined perpetual contracts) maybe on chain metrics are not that indicative. Also with GBTC having a large locked up supply should have been more of a supply squeeze, since these coins don’t move.
It’s odd that the on chain metrics for exchange supply and others are relatively bullish yet the price action is weak. IMHO, a lot of profit taking took place in December ‘21 and macro economic (rate hikes, inflation, oil prices)) and geo political (Russia/ukraine) caused a downturn. It’s hard being bullish given this scenario.
This is a really important post because I know a lot of analysts in the community who would have just posted the first plot and claimed a relationship. Negative results get no traction in the world of social media, so instead we see so many people focusing on less useful relationships that look at first glance really promising (e.g, most metrics including STH Realized Price).
Good work.
Great analysis. 👍
However, with rise of derivative trading (CME for past three +years and stable coins margined perpetual contracts) maybe on chain metrics are not that indicative. Also with GBTC having a large locked up supply should have been more of a supply squeeze, since these coins don’t move.
It’s odd that the on chain metrics for exchange supply and others are relatively bullish yet the price action is weak. IMHO, a lot of profit taking took place in December ‘21 and macro economic (rate hikes, inflation, oil prices)) and geo political (Russia/ukraine) caused a downturn. It’s hard being bullish given this scenario.