Thanks, very interesting as ever. My thoughts were that maybe the weekend could be taken as a whole, i.e Friday night to Sunday night; and that this is more likely a recent thing (last two years) since CME has been trading with enough size leading to the professional gap meme (but I see you have addressed that already below).
Thanks for analysis. Santiment did some research on it a couple of years ago. It appeared that Wednesday could probably be the worst day: https://insights.santiment.net/read/1139
Nice analysis, as usual. Maybe the weekend effect is a recent trend, going back to first-halving might hide it. Have you checked those distributions over time?
Good point. I did check to see if the weekend distribution was different for each cycle. The result is that for both Saturday and Sunday each new cycle is showing less volatility.
That's not a complete comparison day by day (and for this cycle we don't have that many points yet) but it seems to indicate that the same pattern holds independently of the cycle.
I'll try to present that in a nice way maybe later this week in a Twitter thread.
If you look at recent two years or one year for same distribution, it might show differences. One hypothesis is that Mr. Elon often tweet during weekends than weekdays :)
I'M NOT A ROBOT MY NAME IS CHARLET NEWTON AKA CHARLETNEWTONBECAMETRIPLE9 AFTER A SIMPLE SEARCH FINDING GET BACK FROM A LOSS OF BITCOIN, WAS SURPRISED TO FIND. RUNNER-UP SINCE BITCOIN IS THE BEST THAT HIT THE COUNTRY, INSPITE OF THE FALL, BUT WAS INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE ABOUT ECOINOMETRICS.
Thanks, very interesting as ever. My thoughts were that maybe the weekend could be taken as a whole, i.e Friday night to Sunday night; and that this is more likely a recent thing (last two years) since CME has been trading with enough size leading to the professional gap meme (but I see you have addressed that already below).
It is true that looking at the total change over Saturday plus Sunday could lead to different results.
To get a fair comparison I might need to compare with any pair of two consecutive days to each other. Need to think about that and give it a try. 🤔
Thanks for analysis. Santiment did some research on it a couple of years ago. It appeared that Wednesday could probably be the worst day: https://insights.santiment.net/read/1139
Things could change.
Thanks, I hadn't read this analysis. Will definitely check it out.
Nice analysis, as usual. Maybe the weekend effect is a recent trend, going back to first-halving might hide it. Have you checked those distributions over time?
Good point. I did check to see if the weekend distribution was different for each cycle. The result is that for both Saturday and Sunday each new cycle is showing less volatility.
That's not a complete comparison day by day (and for this cycle we don't have that many points yet) but it seems to indicate that the same pattern holds independently of the cycle.
I'll try to present that in a nice way maybe later this week in a Twitter thread.
If you look at recent two years or one year for same distribution, it might show differences. One hypothesis is that Mr. Elon often tweet during weekends than weekdays :)
I'M NOT A ROBOT MY NAME IS CHARLET NEWTON AKA CHARLETNEWTONBECAMETRIPLE9 AFTER A SIMPLE SEARCH FINDING GET BACK FROM A LOSS OF BITCOIN, WAS SURPRISED TO FIND. RUNNER-UP SINCE BITCOIN IS THE BEST THAT HIT THE COUNTRY, INSPITE OF THE FALL, BUT WAS INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE ABOUT ECOINOMETRICS.