I haven't changed my long term view. The next natural stop for Bitcoin's market size is something similar to Apple / financial gold. That means between $100k and $150k per coin.
Now clearly breaking down below the trajectory of the previous cycle isn't great for the dynamic. My guess is that it will just take longer within the cycle.
The tl;dr is that we don't have strong diminishing returns this cycle since the first year following the 3rd halving performed much better than the previous cycle.
Now we could still have diminishing returns as in the peak for this cycle will be lower than the previous one.
But with 3 more years to go it is too early to tell.
I'm going to make the ETH vs BTC vs previous cycles chart into a regular update. It will be updated at least once per week on Twitter (https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics) and I will discuss some more details of it in next Monday's issue of the newsletter.
Great work!
🔥
Have you changed your view since this post?
I haven't changed my long term view. The next natural stop for Bitcoin's market size is something similar to Apple / financial gold. That means between $100k and $150k per coin.
Now clearly breaking down below the trajectory of the previous cycle isn't great for the dynamic. My guess is that it will just take longer within the cycle.
I've discussed the idea of diminishing returns earlier this week (here https://ecoinometrics.substack.com/p/ecoinometrics-on-chain-trends).
The tl;dr is that we don't have strong diminishing returns this cycle since the first year following the 3rd halving performed much better than the previous cycle.
Now we could still have diminishing returns as in the peak for this cycle will be lower than the previous one.
But with 3 more years to go it is too early to tell.
where can I track the updated chart of May 2nd and to see just how parabolic ETH has gone in the past week vs different BTC halving cycles
Hi Jon,
I'm going to make the ETH vs BTC vs previous cycles chart into a regular update. It will be updated at least once per week on Twitter (https://twitter.com/ecoinometrics) and I will discuss some more details of it in next Monday's issue of the newsletter.
Cheers,
Nick